The multiple terror attack in Mumbai was a direct assault on India and its sovereignty and the objective was, besides causing terror and discrediting the government, to provoke a military conflict between two nuclear powers.

Why now?  Even a conflict-like situation, like the one which unfolded on the borders after the December 13, 2001, attack on the Parliament in New Delhi, would seriously undermine the on-going military campaign led by the US against the al Qaida-Taliban combine holed up in the Pak-Afghanistan border. The Pakistan Army is currently engaged heavily in this fight within Pakistan and any tension on the eastern border with India would pull them out of the present war theatre along the Durand Line.

A renewed tension between India and Pakistan would bolster the ranks of the Taliban and al Qaida and their allies like Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), unravelling the war on terror with disastrous consequences for the world as such.

The timing was uncannily perfect. India is in the middle of a critical election phase. Two phases of elections are over in Jammu and Kashmir; five more to go. Both the phases, despite the heavy snowfall and boycott call given by the separatists, saw people coming out in large numbers to vote, a clear referendum to abide by the Indian Constitution. There are elections in other States. The general elections are due next year. A massive terrorist attack, with clear footprints to Pakistan, would provoke the Congress-I led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to take actions which project determination and strength, including military manoeuvres as in January 2002.

Even a gesture of additional deployment on the Line of Control (LoC) keeps the armies of Pakistan and India on check would have compelled the Pakistan Army to withdraw its troops committed in the war on terror on the western front. At least four Army Divisions are engaged in fighting the Taliban-al Qaida combine in Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the tribal areas. Most of these Divisions have been drawn from the Peshawar-based XI Corps which is the Reserve Corps for the eastern front.

Even with 80,000 troops from its para-military unit, Frontier Corps, it has not been easy for the Army to push back the Taliban-al Qaida fighters from Bajaur and Swat despite numerous operations over the past two years. The latest offensive, Operation Sher-dil, has been going on in Bajaur since early August and it has taken the Army considerable effort, along with combat helicopters and heavy artillery firing, to contain the militant force.

With trouble brewing in Swat and areas around Peshawar, besides Balochistan, Pakistan Army would need at least six additional Divisions to clear the tribal areas of the terrorists, including those fighting under the banner of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) led by Baitullah Mehsud.

Any trouble on the eastern front would force Pakistan Army, already under considerable pressure from certain political, religious and military quarters for fighting the Taliban along with the US forces, to divert attention and troops that would mean an immediate collapse of NATO’s valiant fight in Afghanistan to root out the Taliban-al Qaida combine.

Not only would such a conflict unsettle the region, and the world reeling under severe economic crisis, it would bolster the chances of terrorist groups, particularly al Qaida, to shore up its strength, expand its cadre and entrench deeper along the Durand Line and beyond. Such a situation would help terrorist groups like LeT and JeM, closely aligned to al Qaida and the Taliban, to operate unfettered in Pakistan, providing new recruits, training bases and shelter houses for a global terror network.

It is clear that the US cannot afford to give up the war on terror being fought in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It would be disastrous for the US as well as rest of the civilized world. Pakistan cannot withdraw its troops from the western border and let the Taliban-al Qaida to expand their area of operation and influence in other parts of Pakistan and thereby pushing the nuclear country into the Taliban fold.

By orchestrating the Mumbai attack, al Qaida has expanded its area of operations over a larger area to divert the global attention from its base in Afghanistan and Pakistan. To ignore this change of strategy would be catastrophic for the world.

The Mumbai attack must be responded at the global level, by focussing on al Qaida’s network rather than pursuing a purblind policy of `smoking out` Osama bin Laden. In this renewed focus, the al Qaida allies like LeT, JeM, TTP and HuJI must be dismantled and their leaders either neutralised or locked up for ever. Many of them are living freely in Pakistan, some of them in Punjab. Unlike in the tribal areas, the Pakistan government, and its Army, can do this without using the military force. A well-coordinated federal intelligence and police operation can disable the terrorist infrastructure which has kept al Qaida alive in Pakistan.

Wilson John is Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He can be reached at wjohn@orfonline.org